In John Redwood’s latest diary he argues the pound has once again reached its pre-referendum level against the dollar, and that a No Deal Brexit would present a great opportunity to UK farmers.
This week the pound has reached $1.38, a level it was at in late February 2016 before the vote on leaving the EU. Its steady climb has received less attention than its previous fall, and is not usually attributed to Brexit in the way some try to explain any decline post the vote. This is a curious asymmetry in the commentary. I also wonder why they thought the pound often fell against other currencies when we were in the EU with no plans to leave.
Various contributors to this site keep alleging that trade would be very difficult under WTO rules with the rest of the EU. They need to explain how it is we have smooth trade with non EU countries at the moment under those same EU rules. They also ignore the fact that our current border for trade with the rest of the EU is a currency, Excise, VAT, anti smuggling and pro safety border requiring a range of checks and illustrating how much of this work these days is done by electronic manifest and checks that do not delay the flow of goods.
The one area of trade which will be affected by moving to WTO trade arrangements in the event of no trade deal with the EU is the trade in food. This is the only area where high tariffs can be levied, and are currently levied by the EU on imports from outside the zone. Were we to adopt the EU schedule of food tariffs on leaving the EU, they would represent a barrier to continental exporters of food to us.
Our trade in food is in massive deficit with the EU. They sell us the bulk of the £6bn of meat we import, and much of the £10bn of fruit and vegetables. Since we joined the EEC/EU our home producers have lost substantial market share to the rest of the EU, and have found it very difficult to export to the continent. Our beef industry was banned from exporting for a long period, and our milk industry did not have enough quota to produce more. Since 1990 our meat output is well down, our milk output has flatlined and our potato output is down.
The Netherlands have been successful at taking market share for salad stuffs and vegetables. The Danes dominate the ham and bacon market, continental cheese producers do well, and the French and German dairy industries also export large quantities to us.
If the EU decides against a free trade agreement with the UK then UK farms will have a great opportunity to produce far more fruit, vegetables and meat for the Uk market. We could return from the 74% self sufficiency in temperate food to the 95% level we were at prior to the full impact of the Common Agricultural policy. We will also be able to remove tariffs from tropical food products which the UK cannot grow for itself, giving the consumer a better deal.