1st March 2017
Today we are publishing our research on ‘Remain’ MPs Most Vulnerable to a Pro-Brexit Swing in the Next General Election, which details the pro-Remain MPs, from pro-Remain political parties, most vulnerable to a possible pro-Brexit swing at the next General Election.
Those whose constituencies voted ‘Leave’ in the EU Referendum, by a greater margin than the MP’s majority over a pro-Brexit party at the last General Election, are listed here. They are ranked by the difference between the 2 figures.
The MPs included in our list are overwhelmingly Labour MPs, and are mostly vulnerable to the Conservatives – although UKIP are the strongest pro-Brexit competitor in many of the seats.
These MPs represent constituencies from across England and Wales, but are primarily concentrated in the Midlands and the North of England.
Our list does not include only marginal seats, or only Brexit strongholds. The seats range from the ultra-marginal to the relatively safe, and the margins of victory for ‘Leave’ range from relatively small to overwhelming.
David Winnick, the Labour MP for Walsall North, is the MP ranked most at-risk. The margin of victory for ‘Leave’ in his constituency was 48.4%, while his majority is just 5.3% – a 43-point difference. Special attention must also be paid to Paul Farrelly, the Labour MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme who voted against invoking Article 50. ‘Leave’ won in his constituency by over 23%, and his majority is just 1.5%.