John Redwood’s Latest Blog discusses the ludicrous scare stories of the Remain campaign
Project Fear is now caricaturing itself. Is mighty Luxembourg to mobilise against Holland if the UK leaves the EU? Is Spain to launch a new Armada? Will France and Germany suddenly drop sixty years of working together building a political union because the UK has opted out of their constitutional construction? Of course not. These are all peace loving democracies, tied together in the defence alliance of NATO, with a common interest in avoiding war.
If the UK stays in the EU will peace suddenly be restored to Ukraine, when it was the EU/Ukraine Agreement that provoked Russia into its illegal grab of Crimea? Will the EU learn from its blunders intervening in the former Yugoslavia where it did anything but keep the peace?
We should expect the next move to be concerted action to get the pound to fall, and to talk up any bad news about the UK economy. The Remainian government has had one attempt with the Bank of England to talk the pound down, only to see it rise from end February to last week as the polls moved more in favour of Brexit. They will probably try again. They are desperate to tell us anything bad about the Uk economy and then to blame fears of Brexit for it.
They have decided to contradict themselves on interest rates. They both tell us that mortgage rates will go up if we leave, and they tell us the Bank will cut interest rates on Brexit to deal with the short term uncertainties! If you are going to make up a good fib of fear, at least agree one and stick to it. Arguing on both sides of the fears serves to remind people that they cannot believe a word they say.
The Treasury, Bank, IMF and the other powerful bodies that now want to talk the pound down and scorn the UK should we leave are of course famous for their incompetence at forecasting the results of European economic policies. These were the organisations who told the UK to enter the Exchange Rate Mechanism which caused a big recession. None of them forecast the damage their dangerous policy produced. They also favoured entering the Euro , and issued no warnings about the obvious damage to employment and output which the Euro would do to many of its members. They did not forecast the 2011 Euro crisis.
Do not believe a word of their bad forecasts. The US economy has slowed more than ours, so is that Brexit? The Chinese economy has slowed. Is that Brexit? The oil price collapsed last year having a big impact – was that Brexit?
Of course not. The world economy is largely unaffected by the issue of whether we remain or stay. Our trade is not at risk. We will be better off out when we have our own money to spend on jobs and output here at home.
Click here to read this piece in John Redwood’s diary