Polling

Voters less likely to support Labour if their MPs or Lords block the EU Referendum Bill

A ComRes poll commissioned by Get Britain Out showed that more than a fifth of voters (22%) would be less likely to vote for Labour at the next General Election, if their MPs or Lords succeeded in preventing the EU Referendum Bill from going through. The figures prove that Ed Miliband can’t escape responsibility for the actions of individual Labour parliamentarians, even if Labour maintains its position of not actively voting as a party against the referendum.

While a relatively high proportion of people said that their vote would not be affected either way, this of course includes a large number of people who would not consider voting Labour in the first place.

The were also some results in the breakdown of the poll respondents’ 2010 votes and 2015 voting intentions that are particularly significant for Labour’s electoral chances. Nearly one-in-ten (9%) of those intending to vote Labour at the next election said they would be less likely to vote for the party, if Labour parliamentarians block the referendum Bill.

Another key group that Labour needs to win over is those that voted Liberal Democrat in 2010. However nearly a fifth (19%) of these voters said they would be less likely to vote Labour if their MPs or Lords prevented an EU referendum from becoming law.

Now that the EU Referendum Bill has reached the House of Lords, the message for Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg is clear: they must tell the peers in their party not to sabotage the EU referendum bill. They will be shooting themselves in the foot if they let some of their Lords deny the people their say on our EU membership.

Additionally, in response to other questions, 39% of people said that Britain would be economically stronger if we were not members of the EU. This is 12% more than said we were economically stronger because Britain is in the European Union (27%). Also, when asked how they would vote were there an In/Out referendum tomorrow, there was a clear majority for leaving the EU (44% versus 32% to stay).

ComRes interviewed 2,003 GB adults between the 18th and 19th September. Data were weighted to be representative of all GB adults aged 18+. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. See the full results here.

71% Say Government Powerless Over Migration

71% say the government is powerless over Romanian and Bulgarian immigration. A ComRes poll commissioned by Get Britain Out has shown public disbelief in government assurances that they will deter a new wave of EU immigration from Romania and Bulgaria next year. Fifty-nine percent of the British public say that the government cannot meet its target of reducing net immigration to the tens of thousands while Britain is a member of the EU. Previously a ComRes poll by Get Britain Out found 79% want existing immigration controls on Bulgaria and Romania to remain.

Topline figures:

  • A large majority of British adults (71%) say that they do not believe that the UK Government will be able to control the number of immigrants from Bulgaria and Romania (only 15% disagree).
  • Majorities across all demographic groups say that they do not believe the Government will be able to control immigration from Bulgaria and Romania after controls expire in 2014.
  • 69% of Conservatives, 68% of Labour voters and 56% of Liberal Democrats believe the government will not be able to control new EU immigration from Romania and Bulgaria.
  • The East Midlands is the highest region of discontent, with 78% saying the government will be unable to control new EU immigration.

ComRes interviewed 2,011 British adults online from 22nd to 24th February 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults aged 18+. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data tables are available at www.comres.co.uk.

79% Want Migration Controls Kept

A new poll from Eurosceptic campaign, Get Britain Out, reveals strong support to maintaining immigration controls on new EU member states Bulgaria and Romania. Under EU law these controls expire in 2014 and some estimates predict a quarter of a million migrants will arrive in the UK from 2014. During 23-25 January 2013, ComRes asked 2,035 people. On 1st January 2014, UK immigration controls on new EU member states Bulgaria and Romania expire. Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? There should continue to be controls on the numbers of Bulgarians and Romanians that can settle in the UK after 2014 / There should not be controls on the numbers of Bulgarians and Romanians that can settle in the UK after 2014.

Topline results:

  • Over three-quarters (79%) of British people oppose ending immigration controls on new EU states Bulgaria and Romania from 2014
  • Fewer than one-in-ten (7%) support removing immigration controls
  • 89% of those aged 65 or older oppose ending immigration controls
  • Across all social classes there is consistent opposition to ending immigration controls. 79% of both AB and DE classes oppose ending controls. C2 voters are most likely to be opposed at 81%
  • Opposition is strongest in Yorkshire and Humberside with 88% of respondents against ending controls. In the West Midlands the figure is 87%. The South East (82%) and Scotland (81%) follow behind
  • Support for maintaining immigration controls is consistent amongst all voters for political parties, even those who have been supportive of immigration in the past. 60% of Green voters, 73% of Liberal Democrats, 75% of Labour voters and 86% of SNP voters oppose ending immigration controls on these new EU member states

ComRes interviewed 2,035 British adults online from 23rd to 25th January 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults aged 18+. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data tables can be found at www.comres.co.uk.

69% of MPs Believe EU Referendum Will Happen

In September 2012 we polled MPs on when they believe an In/Out EU Referendum will take place. The results were as follows:

  • More than half (57%) of MPs believe a referendum will occur in the next Parliament.
  • More than two-thirds (69%) of MPs believe a vote will take place at some point.
  • 84% of Conservative MPs expect a referendum on the EU to take place in this Parliament or the next. However, only 37% of Labour MPs and 41% of Liberal Democrat MPs say the same.