What people want from the Brexit deal
Lord Ashcroft’s latest research on the state of the parties and what people want from the Brexit deal.
If the negotiations came down to striking a balance between access to the single market and controlling immigration, most voters would give the latter higher priority. As well as two thirds of Leave voters, nearly one in five Remain voters (including three in ten Remainers who voted Tory in 2015) said controlling immigration was more important. Full analysis is available here.
Scotland is becoming more Eurosceptic
Scottish Social Attitudes survey interviewed a random probability sample of 1,237 people aged 16 and above between July and December 2016.
In 1999, only two in five (40%) said either that Britain should leave the EU or that while it should stay it should try to reduce the EU’s powers. However, even by 2005 over half (53%) were of that view, and in 2017 the figure had risen to 67%. This long-term increase in scepticism about Europe reflects a not dissimilar trend elsewhere in the UK. Full data breakdown available here.
No regrets from Brexit voters
A Polling Matters/Opinium poll from January 9th to 12th asked 2,005 people if they thought the United Kingdom made the right decision or wrong decision in deciding to leave the European Union.
52% of those polled said Brexit was the right decision, compared to just 39% who said it was the wrong decision. 14% of Remain voters were now reconciled to Brexit, while there was not nearly as much ‘regret’ among Leave voters, only 3% of whom now believed Brexit was the wrong decision. Full data tables are available here.
December polls show the tide is turning
On behalf of the Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe, Survation conducted a new EU Referendum Poll of 10,015 people online across the UK (including Northern Ireland), between 30th November and 3rd December.
On the question ‘Imagine there was a referendum today with the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?” How would you vote?’ the headline results were as follows: Remain a member of the European Union – 40% (-2), Leave the European Union – 42% (+2) Undecided – 18%. Full data tables are available here.
A separate poll by ICM has the EU referendum campaigns neck and neck on 50% each (excluding don’t knows), giving the Vote Leave campaign its highest rating from ICM since 2013.
Significantly, the poll finds that unless David Cameron secures changes to EU free movement of people rules during his renegotiation, the number of voters backing the leave campaign increases to 53% against 47% backing remain (excluding don’t knows). Full data tables are available here.
First polling conducted since specific demands for EU reform. Leave ahead of Remain
By November 9th it had become clear that that the Prime Minister would seek an opt-out from “ever closer union”, more powers to block EU laws, reduce “red tape” regulation for British businesses and restrict benefits for new EU migrants.
With these specific demands floated and discussed widely, Survation, on behalf of Leave.EU, conducted online polling with fieldwork from November 9th to 11th.
2000 people were asked ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?’ The representative poll found 53% of the Great British Public want to Leave the EU, and 43% want to Remain.
The EU Referendum – Where the UK Stands Today
Business for Britain (August 2015). This was a telephone poll of 601 businesses by Perspective Research Services. It was weighted by the respondents’ number of employees, region, and industry sector in order to give a representative sample of British businesses.
It found that by more than two-to-one (41% to 20%) SMEs believe that the EU is harming rather than helping their business. A majority (54%) would also like to see the EU develop into a less integrated free-trade area, with only a quarter backing further integration.
74% of businesses said that Britain should regain the power to make our own trade deals. Coverage of the poll results featured across the media (above).
Click here to see the full report
Poll Says EU Does not Provide Value for Money
Survation released their latest EU Referendum online poll of 5,000 UK respondents, conducted between 29th June and 6th July for The Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe (ADDE). It is the biggest detailed study of public opinion on Europe for years.
The survey found almost two-thirds of people (65.9%) believe the multi-billion annual cost of EU membership is too high and does not represent value for money.
The poll also found the top issues people sought in renegotiation were, in order:
32% – Ending the automatic right of all EU citizens to live and work in the UK, so that we can control the numbers and quality of immigrants coming to the UK
18% – Restoring sovereignty to the UK Parliament so we can make our own laws
15% – Lowering the cost of our membership, so the money could be spent at home
“The “Yes” campaign begins this process with a lead, but this does not mean that public attitudes towards the European Union are in general favourable.
If the UK were not already a member of the EU, only 37% of the public would support moves to join the organisation, compared with 40% who would be opposed.
When we asked respondents to list the first word or phrase that came to mind when seeing the words “European Union”, Survation’s analysis showed about 21% wrote a response which was considered to be a positive comment, compared with 39% who wrote something negative.”
The survey findings were extensively covered in the Daily Express.
To see the full survey results, click here.
A Majority of the Great British Public Would Vote Britain Out of EU
A WIN/Gallup International poll, published by The Sunday Times on the 21st of December 2014, showed 51% of British respondents would vote to leave the EU, were a referendum held tomorrow.
Whilst the margin between the 51% wanting to leave and the 49% wanting to stay is small, it shows the Out campaign is gaining momentum.
The survey was carried out between the 22nd and the 25th of November 2014.
Click here to read WIN/Gallup’s summary of their poll.
Voters less likely to support Labour if their MPs or Lords block the EU Referendum Bill
A ComRes poll commissioned by Get Britain Out showed that more than a fifth of voters (22%) would be less likely to vote for Labour at the next General Election, if their MPs or Lords succeeded in preventing the EU Referendum Bill from going through. The figures prove that Ed Miliband can’t escape responsibility for the actions of individual Labour parliamentarians, even if Labour maintains its position of not actively voting as a party against the referendum.
While a relatively high proportion of people said that their vote would not be affected either way, this of course includes a large number of people who would not consider voting Labour in the first place.
The were also some results in the breakdown of the poll respondents’ 2010 votes and 2015 voting intentions that are particularly significant for Labour’s electoral chances. Nearly one-in-ten (9%) of those intending to vote Labour at the next election said they would be less likely to vote for the party, if Labour parliamentarians block the referendum Bill.
Another key group that Labour needs to win over is those that voted Liberal Democrat in 2010. However nearly a fifth (19%) of these voters said they would be less likely to vote Labour if their MPs or Lords prevented an EU referendum from becoming law.
Now that the EU Referendum Bill has reached the House of Lords, the message for Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg is clear: they must tell the peers in their party not to sabotage the EU referendum bill. They will be shooting themselves in the foot if they let some of their Lords deny the people their say on our EU membership.
Additionally, in response to other questions, 39% of people said that Britain would be economically stronger if we were not members of the EU. This is 12% more than said we were economically stronger because Britain is in the European Union (27%). Also, when asked how they would vote were there an In/Out referendum tomorrow, there was a clear majority for leaving the EU (44% versus 32% to stay).
ComRes interviewed 2,003 GB adults between the 18th and 19th September. Data were weighted to be representative of all GB adults aged 18+. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. See the full results here.
71% Say Government Powerless Over Migration
71% say the government is powerless over Romanian and Bulgarian immigration. A ComRes poll commissioned by Get Britain Out has shown public disbelief in government assurances that they will deter a new wave of EU immigration from Romania and Bulgaria next year. Fifty-nine percent of the British public say that the government cannot meet its target of reducing net immigration to the tens of thousands while Britain is a member of the EU. Previously a ComRes poll by Get Britain Out found 79% want existing immigration controls on Bulgaria and Romania to remain.
- A large majority of British adults (71%) say that they do not believe that the UK Government will be able to control the number of immigrants from Bulgaria and Romania (only 15% disagree).
- Majorities across all demographic groups say that they do not believe the Government will be able to control immigration from Bulgaria and Romania after controls expire in 2014.
- 69% of Conservatives, 68% of Labour voters and 56% of Liberal Democrats believe the government will not be able to control new EU immigration from Romania and Bulgaria.
- The East Midlands is the highest region of discontent, with 78% saying the government will be unable to control new EU immigration.
ComRes interviewed 2,011 British adults online from 22nd to 24th February 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults aged 18+. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data tables are available at www.comres.co.uk.
79% Want Migration Controls Kept
A new poll from Eurosceptic campaign, Get Britain Out, reveals strong support to maintaining immigration controls on new EU member states Bulgaria and Romania. Under EU law these controls expire in 2014 and some estimates predict a quarter of a million migrants will arrive in the UK from 2014. During 23-25 January 2013, ComRes asked 2,035 people. On 1st January 2014, UK immigration controls on new EU member states Bulgaria and Romania expire. Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? There should continue to be controls on the numbers of Bulgarians and Romanians that can settle in the UK after 2014 / There should not be controls on the numbers of Bulgarians and Romanians that can settle in the UK after 2014.
- Over three-quarters (79%) of British people oppose ending immigration controls on new EU states Bulgaria and Romania from 2014
- Fewer than one-in-ten (7%) support removing immigration controls
- 89% of those aged 65 or older oppose ending immigration controls
- Across all social classes there is consistent opposition to ending immigration controls. 79% of both AB and DE classes oppose ending controls. C2 voters are most likely to be opposed at 81%
- Opposition is strongest in Yorkshire and Humberside with 88% of respondents against ending controls. In the West Midlands the figure is 87%. The South East (82%) and Scotland (81%) follow behind
- Support for maintaining immigration controls is consistent amongst all voters for political parties, even those who have been supportive of immigration in the past. 60% of Green voters, 73% of Liberal Democrats, 75% of Labour voters and 86% of SNP voters oppose ending immigration controls on these new EU member states
ComRes interviewed 2,035 British adults online from 23rd to 25th January 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults aged 18+. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data tables can be found at www.comres.co.uk.
69% of MPs Believe EU Referendum Will Happen
In September 2012 we polled MPs on when they believe an In/Out EU Referendum will take place. The results were as follows:
- More than half (57%) of MPs believe a referendum will occur in the next Parliament.
- More than two-thirds (69%) of MPs believe a vote will take place at some point.
- 84% of Conservative MPs expect a referendum on the EU to take place in this Parliament or the next. However, only 37% of Labour MPs and 41% of Liberal Democrat MPs say the same.